Table of Contents of the Book: 8170948568


1. Introduction

Definition of a Trend

Definition of a Cycle

Determining Trends

2. Risk and the Markets

Sources of Risk

3. How Prices Move (I)

Coin Tossing

Rising and Falling Trends

4. How Prices Move (II)

The Normal Distribution

5. Simulating Future Movement

Monte Carlo Simulation

6. Cycles and the Market

Properties of Sine Waves

Cycles in the Stock Market

Research on Market Cycles

7. Trends and the Market

Mathematical Trends

Extrapolating a Trend Line

8. Properties of Moving Averages

Calculation of Moving Averages

9. Averages as Proxies for Trends

Probabilities from Centred Averages

Boundaries and Channels

10. Trend Turning Points (I)

Short-term Trends

11. Trend Turning Points (II)

Estimation of Channel Direction

12. Trend Turning Points (III)

Why Does Channel Analysis Work?

13. Cycles and Sums of Cycles

Extrapolation of Cycles

The Comparator

Failure of Extrapolations

14. Bringing it All Together

Four Key Steps