1.
Introduction
Definition of a Trend
Definition of a Cycle
Determining Trends
2.
Risk and the Markets
Sources of Risk
3.
How Prices Move (I)
Coin Tossing
Rising and Falling Trends
4.
How Prices Move (II)
The Normal Distribution
5.
Simulating Future Movement
Monte Carlo Simulation
6.
Cycles and the Market
Properties of Sine Waves
Cycles in the Stock Market
Research on Market Cycles
7.
Trends and the Market
Mathematical Trends
Extrapolating a Trend Line
8.
Properties of Moving Averages
Calculation of Moving Averages
9.
Averages as Proxies for Trends
Probabilities from Centred Averages
Boundaries and Channels
10.
Trend Turning Points (I)
Short-term Trends
11.
Trend Turning Points (II)
Estimation of Channel Direction
12.
Trend Turning Points (III)
Why Does Channel Analysis Work?
13.
Cycles and Sums of Cycles
Extrapolation of Cycles
The Comparator
Failure of Extrapolations
14.
Bringing it All Together
Four Key Steps
Conclusion
Index