**1.
Introduction
**

Definition of a Trend

Definition of a Cycle

Determining Trends

**2.
Risk and the Markets
**

Sources of Risk

**3.
How Prices Move (I)
**

Coin Tossing

Rising and Falling Trends

**4.
How Prices Move (II)
**

The Normal Distribution

**5.
Simulating Future Movement
**

Monte Carlo Simulation

**6.
Cycles and the Market
**

Properties of Sine Waves

Cycles in the Stock Market

Research on Market Cycles

**7.
Trends and the Market
**

Mathematical Trends

Extrapolating a Trend Line

**8.
Properties of Moving Averages
**

Calculation of Moving Averages

**9.
Averages as Proxies for Trends
**

Probabilities from Centred Averages

Boundaries and Channels

**10.
Trend Turning Points (I)
**

Short-term Trends

**11.
Trend Turning Points (II)
**

Estimation of Channel Direction

**12.
Trend Turning Points (III)
**

Why Does Channel Analysis Work?

**13.
Cycles and Sums of Cycles
**

Extrapolation of Cycles

The Comparator

Failure of Extrapolations

**14.
Bringing it All Together
**

Four Key Steps

Conclusion

Index